Politico: Turning Point Rests Its Reputation On Andy Biggs’ Race. It’s Not Looking Good

Republicans are already pointing fingers over who is to blame for Andy Biggs’ expected loss in the Arizona Governor’s race, with Election Day just five days away. According to new Politico reporting, Turning Point made the Arizona governor’s race their top priority in 2026 and has spent $18 million on Biggs, more than on any other candidate this cycle. Despite Turning Point’s all-in strategy, Biggs has trailed Governor Hobbs in virtually every public poll this year. As one GOP operative working on other Arizona races put it: “Turning Point owns it.”

The fallout won’t stop at Arizona’s border. Turning Point has already endorsed JD Vance for president and is pitching its swing-state ground game as his field operation. But a former Arizona GOP chair told Politico that Vance should rethink relying on the group if he runs. Arizona Republicans are also faulting Turning Point for holding its biggest spending until September, weeks before ballots went out. It’s the latest in a string of Turning Point picks, from Blake Masters and Kari Lake in 2022 to Lake again in 2024, who won their primaries and lost in November. Turning Point bet its reputation on this race, and it’s on track to enter 2028 weakened and taking the blame.

Read more below:

Politico: Charlie Kirk’s final endorsement is on the ropes — despite his group’s big push
Andrew Howard and Samuel Benson
October 30, 2026

• Turning Point USA has gone all-in to make GOP Rep. Andy Biggs the next governor of Arizona, their top priority of the cycle.

• It appears they will come up short.

• Biggs was the last candidate Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk personally endorsed before he was killed one year ago. Kirk himself recruited the longtime ally in their home state to run for governor this cycle — and Turning Point has since spent $18 million, the most they’ve dropped for anyone this cycle, to try to salvage his campaign.

• “It’s a legacy thing for them,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.). “This is their swan song. This is kind of all-or-nothing for them.”

• But Biggs, a former chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and close ally of President Donald Trump who previously served as Arizona Senate president, has trailed Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in virtually every public poll of the race this year, most of them outside the margin of error. And some Arizona Republicans have been baffled by Turning Point’s strategy.

• The group faces immense criticism from within the state GOP for delaying its biggest spending until September, just weeks before ballots were sent out, according to conversations with 10 local operatives and officials.

• Biggs’ race is the most high-stakes political test for Turning Point Action since Kirk’s 2025 death, and the result will have major implications for the group’s reputation and relevancy within the GOP moving forward. Turning Point has already preemptively endorsed Vice President JD Vance, who was particularly close to Kirk, for president. Should Vance decide to run, he could rely on Turning Point’s ground operation in swing states like Arizona and beyond.

• The group could well overperform this year, and if they are successful in lifting Biggs in their home state, it could send a signal. But a loss could have 2028 repercussions, too.

• “It is the job of national apparatus groups to go on air early and support Republican nominees,” he said. “We of course are disappointed that more national Republican dollars are not matching the national Democrat dollars being spent on Presidential swing states like Arizona.”

• While the RGA has stayed out of the race, the Democratic Governors Association has spent at least $10 million.

• Hobbs, who was elected to the purple state’s governorship in 2022, launched her first general election TV ad in May, while Biggs was still focused on his late July primary. At the time, Turning Point mocked Hobbs for “spending like a drunken sailor” by launching spending so early.

• But now, Republicans say that Hobbs was able to entrench her lead in the race by spending early while Biggs was dark on the airwaves — and blame Turning Point along with other GOP outside groups like the Republican Governors Association for not spending earlier to keep the race competitive. The RGA declined to comment on their decision not to spend in the race.

• In a state like Arizona, where an incumbent governor hasn’t lost reelection since 1966 and some 80% of voters cast ballots before Election Day, a late deluge of cash is less likely to sway the race.

• “If you’re spending that much money, a big portion of that would’ve been really helpful earlier in the race when Andy was completely broke, he didn’t have two nickels to rub together, and Hobbs was dominating the airwaves with no response and beating the crap out of Andy,” said Salmon. “A lot of us are scratching our heads.”

• Biggs’ campaign reported just $1.26 million cash on hand in July, while Hobbs’ campaign reported double that. Many donors to former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey have stayed on the sidelines this year.

• One Republican operative working on other Arizona races, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that at this point, “No amount of spending is going to change the fact that Biggs is going to lose.”

• “In all likelihood, the top statewide seats are going Democrat. And Turning Point owns it,” the strategist added. “They wanted to be the player. They wanted to be the guy. Guess what? They are.”

• Many local Republicans are frustrated that the RGA never spent a penny on the top race in a state Trump won in 2024. While Biggs was getting hammered early on the airwaves, the RGA was spending nearly $4 million on the Wisconsin Democratic primary to boost a democratic socialist who narrowly lost.

• For several cycles, Turning Point has muscled statewide candidates through messy Republican primaries, only to see them falter in November. In 2022, it pushed hardliners Blake Masters and Kari Lake as nominees for U.S. Senate and governor, only to see both lose. In 2024, they backed Lake’s bid for Senate; even as Trump won Arizona by five points, Lake lost by two.

• Biggs, some Republicans thought, would be different. He had high name ID statewide and a track record of public service for Arizona, both in the state Senate and the U.S. House. Kirk himself personally urged Biggs to enter the governor’s race, Biggs told the Arizona Republic, even though Trump had already endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson, a Phoenix attorney and businesswoman, early in the race.

• After Biggs entered the race in January 2025, Trump split his endorsement between Robson and Biggs — and Turning Point took a victory lap.

• “Turning Point Action will marshall our organization’s full resources, ground game, and support behind the Biggs for Arizona campaign, and we’re honored to be able to do so,” Charlie Kirk said in a May 2025 statement. “He has my full and complete endorsement.”

• Robson later dropped out, and Turning Point helped Biggs romp to a massive victory in the primary. Next Tuesday will test if their general-election acumen has improved.