Arizona’s 2026 gubernatorial race is set to be one of the most competitive statewide races in the country this election cycle, with Cook Political Report labeling it a “Toss Up” in their first ratings of the year. In 2022, Katie Hobbs won by 0.7% and, because of Arizona’s divided electorate, there’s no doubt her re-election will be another close race. But Gov. Hobbs has never lost an election, repeatedly defying expectations on her way to victory. While certain members of the pundit class have often counted Gov. Hobbs out, the fundamentals of this race combined with her successful first term point towards another hard-fought win.
Hobbs’ Incumbency Advantage
The incumbency advantage is well documented at all levels of the ballot, but it is especially noteworthy in gubernatorial races. In Arizona, no governor has lost re-election in over half a century. And since President Trump was elected in 2016, Democratic governors have been re-elected 26 out of 27 times.
A variety of factors contribute to the incumbency advantage. First, governors have a proven record of delivering tangible results for the people in their state. In her first two years in office, Gov. Hobbs has provided over $100 million for border security and law enforcement and signed legislation to increase penalties for fentanyl offenses. To put more money back in Arizonans’ pockets, she gave 750,000 Arizona families a tax rebate, she is canceling $2 billion in medical debt for one million Arizonans, and she eliminated the tax on rent. She repealed the state’s 1864 total abortion ban, and she protected Arizona’s water from an out-of-state corporation that was pumping unchecked amounts of water to send crops overseas.
Second, governors are executives, and unlike members of Congress, they enjoy a separation from the partisan gridlock and disdain for Washington politicians. Gov. Hobbs consistently stays out of the national partisan noise and stays focused on delivering for Arizona. Moreover, Gov. Hobbs has ample opportunity to prove that her commitment to working across the aisle isn’t just a campaign slogan. Almost by definition, each one of Gov. Hobbs’ accomplishments is the result of bipartisan compromise. Arizonans see every day that she is serious about putting partisan politics aside to get things done. They see her work with the Trump Administration and Republican Legislature when they share common goals, and they see her stand up to far-right proposals when they are out of touch with Arizona.
Finally, she has and will continue to build a historic fundraising advantage with over $6 million raised in the first two years of her term. The work her campaign did in the last two years to build relationships and grow the grassroots base of support will pay dividends over the next two years, and that is an advantage of time and resources no opponent will ever have.
Grueling, Expensive GOP Primary
While Gov. Hobbs will continue to focus on delivering results for Arizona, her Republican opponents will be in a nasty primary for the next eighteen months that will force them to drain their coffers, appeal to fringe partisans, and take positions far out of the mainstream of Arizona voters. Eight Republicans have already filed statements of interest, and there’s no telling who else will throw their hat in the ring.
The former chair of the Freedom Caucus, Congressman Andy Biggs, has never wavered in his support for President Trump and has earned himself the reputation of a hardline conservative who appeals to a large majority of the Republican base. With an indisputable track record of fighting for conservative causes, coupled with dozens of elections with his name on the ballot, Biggs already holds a decisive lead in the GOP primary.
Meanwhile, Karrin Taylor Robson is a billionaire lobbyist and corporate developer who is only interested in gaining power for herself. She is best known for trying, and failing, to buy support for her 2022 campaign with nearly $19 million of her own money, only to lose to Kari Lake who barely advertised in the primary. Unable to win over voters on her own merits, Taylor Robson will say whatever she thinks is necessary to try to earn – and keep – Trump’s support.
The eventual GOP nominee will have to rebuild their war chest from scratch after the August 2026 primary, and with just three months to go, they’ll spend every moment answering for the extreme positions they took for the prior eighteen months. Conversely, the Hobbs campaign will reap the benefits of starting communication with Arizona’s general election voters far earlier than her eventual opponent. And without a Senate or presidential race creating additional noise, Gov. Hobbs’ message will be loud and clear for Arizonans.
Contrast Between Candidates
The Hobbs campaign is eager to tell Arizonans more about who Katie Hobbs is and contrast her story with either Biggs or Taylor Robson. Hobbs is the first social worker ever elected governor, and Arizonans instinctively understand that her motivations are not about fame or fortune like typical career politicians. Rather, she’s dedicated her life to serving the most vulnerable people, and she understands their struggles intimately. In an environment where the price of everyday items is of top concern, having a governor who has had to work multiple jobs, is still paying off student loans, and who drove for Uber just a few years ago means that she knows what Arizonans are living through because she is too.
Contrast that with a longtime lobbyist and corporate developer who can throw away $20 million on a losing campaign and whose company has a history of making housing more expensive for Arizona families while lobbying for tax breaks for themselves. Or contrast that with an uncompromising extremist who got rich by winning $10 million in a sweepstakes and whose claim to fame is denying Arizona children and families healthcare.
Hobbs’ Clear Path to Victory
Gov. Hobbs will continue building on her long record of working with both parties to deliver results on the issues that Arizonans care about most, while her opponents bury themselves in the knock-down-drag-out fight that is the GOP primary. And when Gov. Hobbs’ eventual opponent emerges in August of next year, Arizonans will know that it’s Katie Hobbs who is on their side fighting to make their lives better, just like she fought for her own family.
While Arizona’s Republican tilt guarantees this race will be a nail-biter from now until November 2026, betting against Katie Hobbs will only guarantee you walk away empty handed.
