Katie Hobbs Campaign Prepares for Tight Race, Launches General Election Paid Media Program

Gov. Katie Hobbs’ re-election campaign is in an exceptionally strong position, but because of the electoral makeup of Arizona, the Hobbs campaign is preparing for another tight race. The campaign is launching its general election paid media program in both English and Spanish, highlighting Hobbs’ working-class background and focus on lowering costs for families. 

This week, the Katie Hobbs campaign launched its first ads of the 2026 election – the earliest ever for an Arizona gubernatorial race – across English and Spanish broadcast and cable television, digital and streaming, and radio to ensure we are reaching Arizonans no matter where they consume content. The Hobbs campaign knows that Arizona races always tighten in the fall, and her re-election campaign is built to do what Hobbs has always done: come out on the winning side of a very close race. 

This robust media campaign is only possible because of Hobbs’ record-breaking grassroots fundraising. She’s earned the support of Arizonans from every county in the state, and 95 percent of her contributions are under $100. With nearly seven times the cash on hand as the next closest opponent, her campaign is able to start communicating with Arizonans early with a positive message before the inevitable Republican attacks begin. 

These first ads highlight Hobbs’ working-class background and financial struggles while raising two kids through the Great Recession. She worked fast food to put herself through school, eventually becoming a social worker, and drove for Uber to buy Christmas presents for her kids. Affordability isn’t just a talking point for Hobbs because she’s lived it. That’s why, as governor, she fought so hard to expand school lunches for kids, create more community college and technical training programs, lower electricity bills, cancel hundreds of millions of dollars in medical debt, lower prescription drug costs, and cut red tape to make housing more affordable. 

The paid media program complements the digital and field programs, which the campaign prioritized from day one. Recognizing that voters are less engaged with traditional media outlets than ever before, the Hobbs campaign is meeting them where they are online by launching a data-driven digital program across streaming platforms like YouTube and Spotify, social media, and Google Search. By fine tuning the targeting of our English and Spanish audiences, we are able to deliver unique creative that captures their attention. Hobbs also made a historically early investment last year of over one million dollars into Copper State Victory, the coordinated field program working to elect Democrats up and down the ballot. Copper State Victory is already opening offices around the state, hiring organizers and a voter protection team, recruiting volunteers, and having face-to-face conversations with voters in English and Spanish. All this in addition to the press events, drivetime radio, morning TV shows, and sit-down interviews with local Arizona press that Gov. Hobbs does regularly – over 70 press availabilities already this year – to speak directly to Arizonans about all she is doing to help ease the burden of Washington’s cost-hiking agenda. 

The GOP primary is a messy, chaotic race to the bottom between two D.C. career politicians who refuse to stand up to Washington and do what’s right for Arizona. 

While far-right Freedom Caucus chair and January 6th organizer Andy Biggs is leading the GOP primary polls, fellow congressman and primary challenger David Schweikert is committed to making sure Arizonans know about Biggs’ history of associating with anti-semitic groups and white supremacists ahead of the July 21st primary election. Schweikert’s campaign has said the attacks were “just an appetizer for what is to come,” while Biggs mocks his opponent for not having President Trump’s cell phone number.  

What neither Biggs nor Schweikert wants to talk about is their shared record of voting for Washington’s agenda, which is raising prices for Arizonans on everything from healthcare and groceries to housing and gas. Biggs, in particular, has made a habit of refusing to answer questions from reporters, small businesses, and his constituents when asked to explain his out-of-touch record. His recent desperate attempt to pin higher gas prices on Hobbs backfired spectacularly, with fact-checkers panning the attack as “disingenuous” and Republicans arguing the Biggs campaign is “wasting its time” and calling on him to take the ad down because “it’s so bad.” Biggs can’t defend his record because he knows Arizonans won’t approve of him consistently putting Washington ahead of Arizona. 

In this red state and with far-right dark money groups prepared to spend tens of millions of dollars against us, the Hobbs campaign will not take a single vote for granted.

There’s no doubt the Hobbs campaign has put itself in position to win this race, but the campaign will not take anything for granted until the last vote is cast. Arizona’s electorate is +9 Republican, meaning Hobbs has to overperform by almost double digits just to pull to a tie. While Trump’s approval numbers nationally continue to fall, he won Arizona in 2024 by 5.5 percent, by far the largest margin of any swing state. Even in an environment favorable to Democrats, this race will remain a toss up through the end. 

Public polling is currently in Hobbs’ favor, but it’s only telling part of the story. Every cycle, the race tightens in the fall as undecided voters go to their partisan corners. While most polling tests Hobbs versus Biggs, they will be joined on the November ballot by No Labels and Green Party candidates. Arizona statewide races often come down to just a few hundred or few thousand votes, so even a small percentage of votes for a third party cannot be ignored and injects a degree of uncertainty into polling. Finally, we’re expecting tens of millions of dollars in attack ads funded by Turning Point USA, MAGA Inc., the Republican Governors Association, and other far-right dark money groups that have called the Arizona gubernatorial race “priority #1.” That’s why it’s so important that the Hobbs campaign is communicating with Arizonans early, often, and everywhere – and sustaining robust communication through November is how we will win this race.