ICYMI: NEW POLL: Hobbs Message Resonating With Arizonans, Retains Lead in Tight Gov Race

Hobbs Dominates Independents 60%-35% In Conservative Model

PHOENIX – Yesterday, Arizona Family and HighGround released a new poll showing Secretary of State and candidate for Governor Katie Hobbs with a lead in the Arizona governor’s race. With three weeks to go before election day and record-breaking fundraising propelling her campaign, it’s clear that Hobbs retains the momentum in this race. After a scathing news week of experts and local leaders picking apart Kari Lake’s “ill-advised” plans that increase costs and defund law enforcement, it’s clear Arizona voters are backing the candidate with plans to fight inflation and lead our state forward. 


  • “The survey was conducted among likely voters from October 12 through 13, 2022, with a random sample of 500 people. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2022 General Election voters with a history of electoral participation. Based on previous midterm election trends, the partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP. The margin of error is ±4.3%.”
  • “Looking at the numbers, Hobbs has a big lead among Independent voters, 60% to Lake’s 35%. There’s also a wide margin when it comes to gender, with 50.8% of women saying they’ll vote for Hobbs.”
  • “HighGround’s survey shows Hobbs commands multiple age groups, with 58.3% to 28.3% of voters under 29, 53.3% to 40% for 30 to 39-year-olds and 49.4% to 37% for those aged 40-49.”
  • “We’ve modeled a conservative Republican turnout but if folks don’t turn out around them, if we don’t see these independents show up, if we don’t see some of these younger voters show up, it will benefit the Republicans,” explained Paul Bentz, HighGround Senior Vice President for Research and Strategy. “What we’re seeing here, for example, in the Lake versus Hobbs race, Lake is losing about 10 points worth of Republicans. And that’s noteworthy because that basically offsets a pretty decent-sized chunk of the GOP advantage.”

You can read more about the poll here.

Katie Hobbs for Governor campaign manager Nicole DeMont released the following statement: 

“Secretary Hobbs has been diligently traveling the state for the past 18 months, bringing her message and plans to tackle our toughest challenges directly to Arizonans. Voters are rejecting Kari Lake’s embarrassingly ineffective plans that would add ‘jet fuel” to rising costs, as well as her extreme and dangerous agenda of putting cameras in our classrooms to spy on our children, defunding law enforcement, and totally banning abortion. We are confident in our strategy and in our plan to win this November.”